Monthly Economic Review
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N°004 September 2024
GECAM
Groupement des Entreprises du Cameroun
Monthly Economic Review By GECAM
N°004 of September 2024
# 1. Major commodity prices
Wheat. Wheat prices saw an 8% monthly increase in September, but a slight annual decline. The price per tonne was $209.83, still below the average since January, which has been $211.7 per tonne.
Cocoa. After peaking in April, prices have been hovering around an average of $8435 per tonne. In September, the price settled at $8675 per tonne, a 2% drop compared to august. However, on an annual basis, prices have significantly increased by 142%
Coffee. The price of coffee has maintained its upward trend observed since September 2023. In September, the price per tonne was $5683, a 7% increase compared to August and a 71% annual increase. Unfavourable weather conditions in major producing countries (especially Vietnam, which accounts for 40% of the supply) have driven this upward trend since late 2023.
Cotton. After declining since March this year, cotton prices are showing a positive trend again with a 4% increase in September, reaching $26.1 per tonne, up from $25 in August. However, on an annual basis, the price remains significantly lower, with a depreciation rate of 17%.
Oil prices. In September, Brent crude was traded at $73 per barrel, marking a decline for the second consecutive month. On an annual basis, the price decreased by 21%.
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GECAM Groupement des Entreprises du Cameroun Monthly Economic Review By GECAM N°004 of september 2024
2. Sub-regional Economic News
Economic Prospects in CEMAC
- Stable Outlook by BEAC
At the global level, economic growth is expected to stabilize around 3.3% by the end of 2024 and 2025. This growth is influenced by the gradual easing of monetary policies by major central banks, improving labour markets, and persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In the CEMAC sub-region, growth is expected to reach 2.9%, driven by non-oil activities. Inflationary pressures are anticipated to decrease to an annual average of 4.2%. However, public finances remain fragile, with a projected deficit of 0.3% of GDP. The reserve requirement ratios are set at 7.00% for demand deposits and 4.50% for term deposits (BEAC, 2024).
Foreign Exchange Reserves: Notable Decline (5%) in 2024
According to BEAC, by the end of 2024, the foreign exchange reserves of CEMAC countries are expected to be 6539 billion CFAF, a 5% year-on-year decline, sharper than the result in a subscription rate of the initial forecast of 2.7% at the beginning of the year. This stock covers 4.5 months of imports, down from 4.8 months in 2023 (BEAC, 2024). The decline in foreign exchange reserves reflects an increasingly unfavourable trade structure for the economies and underscores the urgency of effectively implementing import substitution policies in member states.
Price Dynamics
- Inflation Continues to Decline