GECAM
Groupement des Entreprises du Cameroun
Monthly Economic Review By GECAM
N°001 of June 2024
# 1. Major commodity prices
Wheat. In June, wheat prices stood at 226.3 dollars/t. On a monthly basis, they experience a slowdown of 6% and 11% on an annual basis. However, it remains above the average value observed between August 2023 and March 2024, i.e. almost $214/t.
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Cacao. Following a dip in May, cocoa prices rose by almost 18% in June. This year, the average price for a tonne of cocoa in June was $10,093/tonne, almost 3 times the price in June 2023. The lower production by the main producers (Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana) is behind this inflationary dynamic. According to the forecasts of the International Cocoa Organization, production is expected to be down by 11% over 2023/2024.
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Coffee. A tonne of coffee was trading at $5071/tonne in June, up 30% year-on-year and 6% on May. Since January, the price of coffee has risen by a monthly average of 3%. Adverse climatic conditions in the main producing countries (Vietnam in particular, with 40% of supply) are behind the uptrend in prices since the end of the year 2023.
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Cotton. The price of cotton has been on a downtrend since April 2024. After peaking at $34.5/t in March, a tonne of cotton traded at $26.6 in June, a drop of 8% compared to May 2024 and 12% compared to June 2023.
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Oil prices. Oil prices have fallen again, but smaller than in the previous month. This is the result of the US demand declining (who questioned about the supply outlook) and the dollar's depreciation vis-à-vis other currencies. The price was $82.4 in June 2024, compared to $83.1 in May and $74.9 in June 2023.
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GECAM Groupement des Entreprises du Cameroun Monthly Economic Review By GECAM N°001 of June 2024
2. Sub-regional Economic News
CEMAC Economic outlook: Second session of the BEAC's Monetary Policy Committee in June 2024
At the end of the second session of the Monetary Policy Committee, the macroeconomic and financial outlook for the CEMAC records growth of 3.3% in 2024 compared with 2.3% in 2023, sustained with solid performance of non-oil activities (3.8% compared with 3.0% in 2023) and a recovery in oil activities (1.0% after -1.1% in 2023). BEAC forecasts that inflationary pressures will persist, albeit to a lesser extent, with average annual inflation forecast at 3.9% in 2024, compared with 5.6% in 2023. Public finances are improving, with the budget balance rising from -0.2% of GDP in 2023 to +0.5% in 2024.
Regional integration: Interstate joint committee set up to promote free trade in the CEMAC region