MINISTRY OF FINANCE SECRETARIAT GENERAL DIVISION OF FORECASTS REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Peace - Work - Fatherland
# FOURTH QUARTER 2023 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BULLETIN
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Economic Outlook Bulletin No. 54 April 2024
# SUMMARY
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...5 OVERVIEW ...6 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ...9 REAL SECTOR ...13 EXTERNAL SECTOR ...26 PUBLIC FINANCES ...36 MONETARY SITUATION ...42 BANKING SECTOR ...45 EDITORIAL COMMITTEE ...48
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Economic Outlook Bulletin No. 54 April 2024
# ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
BEAC: Bank of Central African States CEMAC: Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa CT: Corporation Tax DF: Division of Forecasts DGC: Directorate General of Customs GDP: Gross Domestic Product GNP: Government Net Position HPSF: Hydrocarbon Prices Stabilisation Fund IMF: International Monetary Fund Ib: English Pound MINFI: Ministry of Finance NHC: National Hydrocarbons Corporation OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development STPP: Special tax on the sale of petroleum products TNP: Treasury Net Position VAT: Value Added Tax
Economic Outlook Bulletin
No. 54 April 2024
# OVERVIEW
International economic environment
In the fourth quarter of 2023, global economic activity was marked by rising commodity prices, in line with the continuing war in Ukraine, the conflict in Gaza and the effects of climate change on agricultural production.
In advanced countries, GDP growth decelerates to 0.4% from 0.5% in the third quarter of 2023. However, there are disparities between countries in terms of the pace of growth.
In the United States, economic growth slows to 0.8% after 1.2% in the third quarter. This slowdown is driven by the slowdown in public consumption, despite an increase in household final consumption, investment and exports.
In emerging and developing countries, growth was positive in almost all the Group's main economies. In China, sales rose by 1.0% after 1.5% in the previous quarter. Among the Group's other main countries, there was: (i) an acceleration in India (+2.1% after +1.9%), South Africa (+0.1% compared with -0.2%) and Turkey (+1.0% after +0.3%); (ii) stable growth in Indonesia (+1.2% as in the previous quarter) and Brazil (+0.0%); and (iii) a contraction in Argentina (-1.9% compared with +2.2%).
For the year 2023 as a whole, growth in the world economy is estimated at 3.2%, after 3.5% in 2022. It should remain at 3.2% in 2024. In the group of advanced countries, growth will slow to 1.6% after 2.6% in 2022. This slowdown is the result of weak growth in the eurozone, despite the dynamism seen in the United States.
In the group of emerging and developing countries, growth is estimated at 4.3% after 4.1% in 2022. Among the main countries in the group, GDP will grow by 5.2% after 3.0% in China, 7.8% after 7.0% in India, 3.6% compared with -2.2% in Russia and 2.9% after 3.0% in Brazil. In sub-Saharan Africa in particular, the growth rate will be 2.7% after 3.8% in 2022. This slowdown is mainly seen in Nigeria (+2.9% after +3.3%) and South Africa (+0.6% after +1.9%). In the CEMAC zone, it is estimated at 2.5%, after 2.8% in 2022.