Quaterly update on food and nutrition security crisis risks
KEY MESSAGES
- The JMR modelling estimates that in March 2026, approximately 4.5 million people out of a total of 30.2 million (15% of the population) were living in areas at risk of experiencing acute food insecurity at IPC/CH level 3 or above. Of these, 1.8 million were in conflict zones (the Far North, North-West and South-West regions), while 2.6 million were in non conflict zones, representing 17% and 13% of their respective populations. The share of the population at risk fell from 22% in January to 16% in February, but averaged 18% (5.4 million people) in Q1 2026, highlighting structural vulnerability.
- Alerts decreased during the first quarter of 2026: 58 in January, 27 in February, and 26 in March, totalling 39 critical risk alerts and 72 heightened risk alerts. The food price volatility indicator recorded the highest number, with 7 critical risk alerts and 57 heightened risk alerts, followed by the drought-rainfall indicator with 31 critical risk alerts and 4 heightened risk alerts, mainly in January. Food prices registered 10 heightened risk alerts overall. The drought-NDVI indicator recorded 1 critical and 1 heightened risk alert in March. No alerts were recorded for the exchange rate or its volatility, reflecting relative stability of the CFA franc against the US dollar.
- Food imports fell from 65 billion CFA francs (Jan 2025) to 54 billion (Mar 2026), mainly due to reduced rice imports following expanded cultivation areas since 2024 and an increase in custom duties. Two major conflicts continue to affect Cameroon: the separatist crisis in the North-West and South-West, and the non-state armed groups insurgency in the Far North. Between January and March 2026, the North-West and South-West recorded 676 incidents and 278 deaths with a strong concentration in Mezam Division, while the Far North saw 163 attacks and 122 deaths, the highest level since 2022. Displacement figures as of 31 March 2026 included 493,402 IDPs (North-West/South-West), 510,855 (Lake Chad Basin), 409,379 refugees, and 790,842 returnees. New displacements between January and March totalled 7,234 in the North-West/South-West and 11,837 in the Far North. Animal health was marked by multi-regional spread of peste des petits ruminants (PPR), under the status “stable and resolved” following the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) standards. Fuel prices have remained stable following a 15% in February 2024, which directly drove up transport costs and food prices. The informal “zoua-zoua” fuel market expanded in border areas near Nigeria, with prices rising by 20–33% following Nigeria’s subsidy removal. Fuel imports surged over the 2026 first quarter, deepening external dependence.